Module 6: On-Chain Analysis
Coin Age and Holder Behaviour
Chapter 5 of 12 · about 5 minutes
5.1 Coins that haven't moved in years
Hash showed Mint a striking statistic: a large share of all bitcoin hadn't moved on-chain in over a year. Some hadn't moved in over a decade.
"So a lot of people bought and just held," said Mint.
"Or lost their keys," said Hash. "Either way, those coins aren't for sale right now. Watching how long coins sit still, and when old coins suddenly move, is one of the most useful ideas in on-chain analysis."
5.2 Coin age
On Bitcoin, every coin is a UTXO with a creation time (Module 3, Chapter 3). So for every coin, you can measure how long since it last moved. This is called coin age, or coin dormancy.
Coins that have sat still for a long time are generally held by long-term holders. Coins that moved recently are generally held by traders, newer buyers, or exchanges.
Coin age is easiest to measure on Bitcoin because of the UTXO model. On account-based blockchains like Ethereum, similar analyses are possible but less direct, because balances in an account mix funds from different times.
5.3 Long-term and short-term holders
Analysts commonly divide supply into two groups:
| Group | Common definition | Typical behaviour |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term holders (LTH) | Coins unmoved for more than about 155 days, a widely used convention | Patient, less reactive to short-term price moves; tend to sell into strength |
| Short-term holders (STH) | Coins that moved within the last ~155 days | More reactive; tend to panic sell on drops and chase rallies |
The 155-day threshold isn't a law. It's a convention used by several analytics platforms, chosen because statistically, coins held longer than that are much less likely to be spent.
5.4 The holder cycle
Over market cycles, long-term and short-term holders have tended to follow a recognisable pattern.
| Market phase | Long-term holders | Short-term holders |
|---|---|---|
| Bear market and bottom | Accumulate; their supply grows as coins age past 155 days | Sell in fear; many capitulate at losses |
| Early recovery | Hold; supply keeps growing | Start buying again |
| Bull market | Begin selling into rising prices; their supply falls | Supply grows as new buyers arrive |
| Market top | Distribute heavily | Hold the most supply, often bought at high prices |
"So when long-term holders are selling and new buyers are absorbing it, the market might be near a top," said Mint.
"That's how it has often looked in the past," said Hash. "Old hands sell to newcomers when prices are high, and buy back from them when prices are low."
Chapter 5 · The holder cycle
Across bear, recovery, bull, and top phases, long-term holder supply rises while prices are low and falls as they sell into strength, while short-term holder supply grows near tops. The 155-day split is a convention, and internal transfers can reset a coin's measured age.
5.5 HODL waves
HODL waves (the term comes from crypto slang for holding) show the share of supply in different age bands over time, displayed as coloured layers.
| Age band | What a growing share suggests |
|---|---|
| Less than 1 month | Increased trading and new activity |
| 1 to 6 months | Recent buyers holding |
| 6 months to 2 years | Medium-term conviction |
| 2 to 5 years | Long-term conviction |
| More than 5 years | Deep holders, plus coins that may be lost |
During bull markets, younger bands typically grow, as old coins are sold to new buyers. During bear markets, older bands grow, as coins sit still and age.
5.6 Coin days destroyed
When an old coin moves, its age resets to zero. Coin days destroyed (CDD) measures how much accumulated age disappears when coins move.
Coin days destroyed = number of coins moved × days since they last moved
| Transaction | Coins | Days held | Coin days destroyed |
|---|---|---|---|
| A long-term holder moves 2 BTC | 2 | 500 | 1,000 |
| A trader moves 100 BTC | 100 | 2 | 200 |
The trader moved fifty times as many coins, but destroyed far fewer coin days. CDD highlights when old coins move, which often matters more than when lots of young coins move.
Spikes in CDD show long-term holders moving coins, which can indicate selling, especially near market tops. As always, check the reason: old coins also move for custody changes, inheritance, or wallet upgrades.
5.7 Dormant coins waking up
Occasionally, coins that haven't moved for ten years or more suddenly move. These events attract a lot of attention, because they could be early miners or early investors, possibly preparing to sell.
Sometimes they are. But very old coins also move because owners are upgrading to newer wallet formats or address types, moving to better security, or settling estates. And some movements are tied to legal processes, such as funds recovered from old hacks or exchange bankruptcies being returned to creditors.
"So 'ancient whale wakes up' is a headline, not an analysis," said Node.
"Exactly," said Hash. "Watch what happens next. Do the coins go to an exchange? Or just to a new wallet?"
5.8 Lost coins
A meaningful but unknown amount of bitcoin is permanently lost: keys forgotten, hard drives discarded, owners deceased with no records (Module 2, Chapter 4). These coins appear in the oldest age bands forever.
This matters because effective supply is lower than the official supply. It also means very old bands overstate active long-term conviction somewhat. Estimates of lost coins vary widely, so treat them with caution.
5.9 Try it yourself
Find a chart of Bitcoin long-term holder supply and short-term holder supply over the past four years. Mark the major price highs and lows. What were long-term holders doing near each high? Near each low?
Then look at a HODL waves chart and identify one period when the younger age bands expanded sharply. What was happening to the price?
Key takeaways from this chapter
- Coin age measures how long since coins last moved; it's easiest to measure on Bitcoin.
- Long-term holders, commonly coins unmoved for about 155 days, tend to be patient; short-term holders tend to be reactive.
- Historically, long-term holders accumulate in bear markets and sell into strength in bull markets.
- HODL waves show supply by age band; younger bands grow in bull markets and older bands in bear markets.
- Coin days destroyed highlights when old coins move, which can signal long-term holder selling.
- Dormant coins waking up can mean many things. Watch where they go next.
- Lost coins reduce effective supply and inflate the oldest age bands.